Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4202 LANDED 9:55 AM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

MQ 4202 · MTY → DFW

took off · landed 9:55 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4202 · MTY → DFW

Odds over time