MQ 4205 · DFW → LCH

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LCH?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ LCH usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

LCH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4205 · DFW → LCH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LCH?