MQ 4207 · SEA → PHX

departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 5:36 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4207 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?