Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4217 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 4217 · ORD → MSN

departs 9:01 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

MSN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4217 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time