MQ 4246 · ORD → TRI

departs 9:01 PM CT · arrives 11:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TRI?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TRI

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

TRI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4246 · ORD → TRI

Odds over time

How late will it get to TRI?