Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4248 LANDED 6:10 AM MT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 4248 · ABI → PHX

took off 6:17 AM CT · landed 6:10 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ABI that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ABI are usually not late

Weather at each end

ABI (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5.8 mi Precip0.14 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4248 · ABI → PHX

Odds over time