MQ 4271 · ORD → ABE

departs 8:18 PM CT · arrives 11:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ABE more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ABE?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABE

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.88 in

ABE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4271 · ORD → ABE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABE?