Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4275 LANDED 3:56 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 4275 · ORD → CAE

took off 1:28 PM CT · landed 3:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

CAE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4275 · ORD → CAE

Odds over time