Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4318 LANDED 6:02 PM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 4318 · DFW → CID

took off 4:23 PM CT · landed 6:02 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

CID (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4318 · DFW → CID

Odds over time