Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9866 LANDED 12:03 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 9866 · STL → CVG

took off 10:13 AM CT · landed 12:03 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 9866 · STL → CVG

Odds over time