Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5040 LANDED 11:29 AM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5040 · PHL → MEM

took off 10:35 AM ET · landed 11:29 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5040 · PHL → MEM

Odds over time