Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5200 LANDED 8:53 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5200 · MKE → PHL

took off 6:13 AM CT · landed 8:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5200 · MKE → PHL

Odds over time