OH 5219 · PHL → DSM

took off 7:47 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:32 PM ET → 9:20 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5219 · PHL → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?