Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

OH 5249 · LEX → PHL

departs 5:01 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from LEX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,420 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5249 · LEX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?