OH 5387 · PHL → MEM

took off 8:29 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 8:05 PM ET → 9:32 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5387 · PHL → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?