OO 238 · PHX → OKC

departs 6:47 PM MT · arrives 11:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OKC that day

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.62 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 238 · PHX → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?