OO 3015 · ACV → SEA

departs 3:17 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ACV (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.01 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3015 · ACV → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?