OO 3033 · PHX → SAN

departs 12:10 PM MT · arrives 1:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3033 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?