OO 3034 · SAN → PHX

departs 1:03 PM PT · arrives 2:27 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3034 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?