Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3159 LANDED 10:09 AM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OO 3159 · TUS → SEA

took off 7:06 AM MT · landed 10:09 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ 7am departures from TUS are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3159 · TUS → SEA

Odds over time