OO 3287 · STS → SNA

took off 9:38 AM PT · expected to land 10:49 AM PT (scheduled 8:30 AM PT → 10:12 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
86%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3287 · STS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?