OO 3491 · FAT → SAN

departs 11:25 AM PT · arrives 12:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3491 · FAT → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?