OO 3492 · SFO → SNA

departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 6:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3492 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?