OO 3697 · SNA → SEA

departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 8:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SNA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3697 · SNA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?