OO 4177 · AUS → MFE

departs 10:35 AM CT · arrives 11:55 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MFE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.18 in

MFE (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4177 · AUS → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?