Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4633 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OO 4633 · MRY → SFO

departs 7:20 PM PT · arrives 7:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4633 · MRY → SFO

Odds over time