OO 4638 · ORD → COS

departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to COS?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at COS that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

COS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4638 · ORD → COS

Odds over time

How late will it get to COS?