OO 4715 · SFO → ACV

departs 2:16 PM PT · arrives 3:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4715 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?