OO 4716 · ORD → ASE

departs 7:52 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ASE?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ASE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.81 in

ASE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4716 · ORD → ASE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ASE?