OO 4764 · FAT → DEN

departs 12:37 PM PT · arrives 4:06 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4764 · FAT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?