OO 4786 · IAH → MSY

departs 9:44 PM CT · arrives 11:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4786 · IAH → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?