OO 4792 · MLI → ORD

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 3:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MLI that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MLI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MLI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.07 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4792 · MLI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?