OO 4887 · ASE → DFW

departs 1:06 PM MT · arrives 4:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ASE is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

ASE (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4887 · ASE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?