OO 490 · ORD → FWA

departs 5:57 PM CT · arrives 8:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FWA?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FWA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.14 in

FWA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 490 · ORD → FWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FWA?