OO 4911 · DFW → ASE

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 7:58 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ASE?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ASE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

ASE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4911 · DFW → ASE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ASE?