OO 4914 · ORD → ASE

departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ASE?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ASE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.77 in

ASE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4914 · ORD → ASE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ASE?