OO 4950 · PHX → DSM

departs 7:02 PM MT · arrives 11:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4950 · PHX → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?