OO 4986 · ORD → HSV

departs 10:29 PM CT · arrives 12:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HSV?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

HSV (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4986 · ORD → HSV

Odds over time

How late will it get to HSV?