OO 4989 · STS → PHX

took off 4:22 PM PT · expected to land 6:05 PM MT (scheduled 4:35 PM PT → 6:55 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4989 · STS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?