OO 4997 · ORD → RAP

took off 4:30 PM CT · landed 5:16 PM MT (scheduled 4:23 PM CT → 5:56 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RAP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ RAP usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

RAP (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4997 · ORD → RAP

Odds over time

How late did it get to RAP?