Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5218 LANDED 12:55 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

OO 5218 · SMF → SFO

took off 12:24 PM PT · landed 12:55 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5218 · SMF → SFO

Odds over time