OO 526 · ORD → FWA

took off 2:27 PM CT · landed 3:58 PM ET (scheduled 1:58 PM CT → 4:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FWA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ FWA usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

FWA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 526 · ORD → FWA

Odds over time

How late did it get to FWA?