Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
OO 5286 · SFO → RDD
departs 10:28 AM PT · arrives 11:46 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RDD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDD
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.