OO 5319 · FSD → DEN

took off 11:39 AM CT · expected to land 11:59 AM MT (scheduled 11:35 AM CT → 12:25 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at FSD that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ FSD is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5319 · FSD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?