OO 5443 · LEX → ORD

departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
21%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5443 · LEX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?