OO 5459 · IAH → COS

departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to COS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at COS that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ COS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

COS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5459 · IAH → COS

Odds over time

How late will it get to COS?