OO 5632 · ORD → JAX

departs 6:39 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.90 in

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5632 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?