Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5638 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

OO 5638 · ORD → OMA

took off 7:30 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:48 PM CT → 7:23 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

OMA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5638 · ORD → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?