OO 5679 · ORD → MSN

departs 6:11 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.14 in

MSN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5679 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?