OO 5686 · SGF → ORD

departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 4:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
35%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
22%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SGF (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5686 · SGF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?